Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC) Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific: 21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10). A visual of my prediction can be found here. AndrewTalk To Me 01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC) : Geez Andrew, that's a little too ''wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: '''20 '''depressions, '''18 '''named storms, '''12 '''hurricanes, and '''5 '''major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem ''very ''unlikely IMO. Steven09876 05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC) ::Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC) 12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys. Steve820 20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!) Steve820 00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC) Pre-season predictions About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC) :Maintaining my forecast from above. AndrewTalk To Me 20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC) ::Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC) ::El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC) :::Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to '''20-24' named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992. Steve820 03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC) :::::My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC) October 19E.SIMON Aoi:GFS storm #1 0/20. 18z GFS brought this near MX. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 00:09, September 26, 2014 (UTC) : I believe this might be Simon by next week. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:45, September 26, 2014 (UTC) ::I don't see any reason why this AOI couldn't develop. However, do note it is tagging right behind Rachel. Chances of formation are now up to '''50%' for the next five days. AndrewTalk To Me 12:05, September 27, 2014 (UTC) ::::10/60. Here comes Simon... Ryan1000 20:56, September 27, 2014 (UTC) :::::Yep, Simon is just around the corner. Geez, this is a really active EPac season! And if this is the 12th consecutive hurricane...--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 21:02, September 27, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Steve, I actually wouldn't mind if this AOI continued the hurricane streak one more storm. For trivia, the two Simons of the EPAC - in 1984 and 1990 - both reached winds of at least 55 knots, yet neither became hurricanes. However, the 1990 incarnation was just a kiss away from being so - 60 kts/990 mbar, and if it were not for the cooling SST's it dealt with, IMO that could have been a Hurricane Simon. Sadly, it didn't become one, and it's time for Mr. Seville to become a hurricane for once! :) Anyway, the AOI's chances of formation are now at 20% for the next 48 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 03:24, September 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Steve, stop complaining when storms are strong. In a few years, when this historic season is long over, and we've hit an epic -PDO string, you'll be regretting the fact that you did not route for the last few storms to deepen. Anyhow, GFS doing its usual back off now that it's abit offshore. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 04:19, September 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::I don't think Steve is complaining, at least not if his reaction to Rachel becoming a hurricane is anything to judge by. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:33, September 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::YE, I'm not complaining, I just think the number of hurricanes we've had so far is just damn dramatic. I never thought we would have 11 hurricanes in a row this season!!! I hope Simon comes from this, and it could possibly be another hurricane, which would be absolutely awesome, since it would extend the record to 12! What an incredible season we've had thus far.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 16:18, September 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Andy, Steve, look what Simon Cowell did to that chipmunk. This is all what he could say. What the bloody hell was that? rarity is best pony 22:48, September 28, 2014 (UTC) 90E.INVEST Invested and at 80% for 5 days. 'Ryan1000' 21:49, September 29, 2014 (UTC) : Simon is coming soon, 40/90, and might bring heavy rain over parts of southern Mexico. And it could even be our 12th hurricane!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:39, September 30, 2014 (UTC) :: Now 60/90. Where is everyone? Right here is a candidate for Simon, guys! However, it is causing some floods in southern Mexico, but it could still be our 12th hurricane in a row.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:10, October 1, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Here. Initial forecast is to peak this as a 65 mph TS, but if Rachel was able to pull off hurricane strength when it was only forecast to peak at 45 mph initially, this can become a hurricane too. 'Ryan1000' 21:35, October 1, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Simon Now named, and the forecast peak is raised to 70 mph. However, like Rachel, I expect this to become a hurricane, possibly a cat 2 or 3 if he gets lucky. 'Ryan1000' 10:12, October 2, 2014 (UTC) :45 knts. GFS, GFDL, and HWRF brings this to Baja as very potent hurricanes. NHC too far west, so Baja watch out. This system is intensifying, which is when models tend to shift E and brings storms near Baja. As for intensity, we have more divergence than the past 2 systems, and low shear and warm SST's. Therefore, this should be at least a Cat 1-2, possibly a 3-4. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 22:44, October 2, 2014 (UTC) ::That's not good, especially after what Odile put Baja through :/ --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:16, October 3, 2014 (UTC) :::Simon could become a hurricane tomorrow. I predict that this will peak at Cat. 2 strength, and like you guys said above my post, it might be a threat to Baja. This means bad news for the dudes and ladies in Baja that were affected by the destructive Odile recently. Simon, whatever you do, don't point at Baja and instead try to turn away from it!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:35, October 3, 2014 (UTC) ::::Looks a little sheared. I would have gone 50 knts the past 2 cycles, but NHC is not liking ADT values for some reason. ASCAT found this a 40-45 knts TS, but is downright trash. 12z ATCF keeps this at 45 knts, in line with Dvorak, but below CI values. NHC track still too far west for my liking. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 13:00, October 3, 2014 (UTC) ::::::If this thing recurves to hit southern or central Baja it's probably going to be weakening fast before it makes landfall. It'll probably be like Paul 2012 more than Norbert '08. Personally, I'm hoping for a cat 3 at Simon's peak. 'Ryan1000' 15:00, October 3, 2014 (UTC) :::::::EP, 19, 2014100400, , BEST, 0, 190N, 1111W, '''65, 988, HU,' 64, NEQ, 10, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, D, This season just keeps on truckin'. The first Hurricane Simon comes hot on the heels of the first Hurricane Rachel, and I have a feeling that Simon will be quite a bit stronger. We'll see. For what it's worth, it has now been 19 days since we last had a major hurricane in the EPAC (Odile lost MH status on September 15). That's our longest gap since Iselle became one on August 3, 51 days after Cristina weakened to a Category 2. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:05, October 4, 2014 (UTC) Hurricane Simon ...SIMON BECOMES THE 13TH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...'''Wait, 13th? Last I checked, it was the 14th...and 12th consecutive. Anyways, forecast peak is now raised to 100 mph. Though I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a major. ''Ryan1000'' 05:35, October 4, 2014 (UTC) : Now 85/981. Forecast to peak at 110 mph, but at this point Simon has a pretty good chance of becoming a major hurricane. Let's just hope he weakens a lot before making landfall in southern Baja. ''Ryan1000'' 12:32, October 4, 2014 (UTC) ::It's the 13th because they were referring to the EPAC proper, i.e. they didn't count Genevieve because it became a hurricane in the CPAC. --'''Dylan (Hurricane 99) 13:00, October 4, 2014 (UTC) :::My C4 sense is tingling... Simon is already a Category 2 per ATCF, and at this rate, we could have a major before nightfall. EP, 19, 2014100412, , BEST, 0, 199N, 1133W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1007, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, D, Simon is a good 20 kts and 14 mbar stronger than it was at the last ATCF entry only 6 hours prior. I think we have a bombing hurricane on our hands for the first time since Odile. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:24, October 4, 2014 (UTC) :::Simon might very well become a cat 4 might be the third male major hurricane of the season along with Julio and Norbert.Allanjeffs 14:23, October 4, 2014 (UTC) ::::Latest NHC advisory puts Simon at 95 kts/966 mbar, on the cusp of major hurricane status (it could already be there, since Beven describes the 95 kt estimate as possibly conservative). At this point, Simon is doomed to become our third male major, but the question is: how strong will it get? According to Beven, Simon is moving over cooler waters, so the official NHC forecast calls for the current pace of intensification to slow down, with a peak of 105 kts, which is where Norbert and Julio ended up. However, remember that Iselle reached 120 kts in conditions that were thought to be supportive of only Category 2 intensity at best; Beven recognizes the possibility of Simon becoming stronger than anticipated. Personally, I hope Simon becomes a Category 4; if it does so, it will be the record-tying seventh of the season, and we'll only need one more later this month (or in November, if we get the Second Coming of Kenneth) to steal the record for most Category 4 hurricanes in an EPAC season. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:40, October 4, 2014 (UTC) A Kenneth 2.0 is highly unlikely to occur in any given year, and it'd take a series of odd events for it to happen this year. The season is drawing to a close and the ITCZ should be departing southward slightly earlier than nomral, lowering the odds of an active November. GFS brings this into Baja as a Cat 1. NHC track looks a little west still, but not by much. I know some are clamouring for a major, but at that time, a 5.0 from SAb, a 5.0 form 8.1.2 V ADT, and a 5.5 from TAFB supported it. For the first time ever, we get recon right when it's RIing in an EPAC storms. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 16:50, October 4, 2014 (UTC) Major Hurricane Simon Update statement issued by NHC. 100 kt winds and 952 mbar pressure as determined by Hurricane Hunters. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:56, October 4, 2014 (UTC) : Yeah, this thing has a good shot at becoming a 4, I expect Simon's peak to be near 135-140 mph at the rate it's going, but it'll probably fall short of cat 5. However, their official forecast now dissipates it before recurving to hit Baja. That would be good news since parts of Cabo are still recovering from Odile's mess last month. October has just begun YE, it's definitely not impossible we could break or tie the records for the most number of hurricanes/MH's for the EPac this year. Best-case scenario, we could get 3 more storms through the rest of the month, 2 hurricanes and 1 or both of them being majors. We won't run the entire table like 1992 did, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get to Vance or Winnie this year. 'Ryan1000' 19:36, October 4, 2014 (UTC) "...SIMON SAYS IT IS A MAJOR HURRICANE TO A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT..." lol.--Isaac829 20:47, October 4, 2014 (UTC) :Dammit Isaac you beat me! Up to 105 kts/950 mbar now, but the latest NHC discussion says that Simon might be about to start an EWRC... can this storm please not? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:50, October 4, 2014 (UTC) ::Lol Isaac, that's a pretty hilarious quote right there. I still hope it becomes a C4, but Simon, '''don't '''enter an EWRC! Please! Continue to strengthen and achieve C4 strength! I find it pretty incredible Simon made it this far.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:56, October 4, 2014 (UTC) ::::Haha, very funny NHC. For the record... according to the latest forecast discussion:"Simon is the eighth major hurricane of the 2014 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane season. This ties the record for major hurricanes set in 1983, 1992, and 1993." This is, of course, just from the EPac proper. 1992 had 10 majors, counting Iniki and Ekeka in the CPac. Maybe we can get two more majors through the rest of October to tie that record, let's hope so. 'Ryan1000' 21:33, October 4, 2014 (UTC) ::::Ignore what the NHC says. Anyhow, ATCF has this up to 115 knts. This could make a run for Cat 5. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:49, October 5, 2014 (UTC) ::::::'...AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...Yep, guess so YE, this thing is now the record-tying 7th cat 4 of the season, if we get one more cat 4 later this month we'll break the 3-way tie between this year, 1992, and 1993 for having the most cat 4's in a single season. ''Ryan1000'' 02:47, October 5, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Well well well, looks like my whining during Odile paid off lol. I was so caught up in praying for a male C4 that I lost sight of what Odile had - and was about to - accomplish(ed). I relented when I realized how silly I was being; fast-forward not even three weeks, and now we finally have a male C4 in Simon, which is also the season's fifth-strongest storm in terms of pressure (946 mbar, versus Cristina's 935, Amanda's 932, Odile's 922 and Marie's 918). Wouldn't it be great if Simon suddenly RI'd to become the strongest storm of the season? Yeah that's it, Simon says "f**k you, Marie!!!" --'''Dylan (Hurricane 99) 04:02, October 5, 2014 (UTC) :::::::P.S.: Shout-out to the NHC for finally rounding 115 kts correctly to 130 mph instead of 135. Simon's the first storm since Emilia to receive that treatment. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:05, October 5, 2014 (UTC) :::::::P.S.S.: "The trend of models suggests that moisture from Simon could bring another heavy rain event to the southwestern United States in a few days." "Screw that, forget about that, I don't wanna think about anything like that" --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:12, October 5, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Looks like Simon slipped in intensity, it's now 115 mph and forecast to continue weakening quickly as it moves over colder waters and gets sheared by that recurving trough over the next few days. Hopefully it dies before reaching Baja. Ryan1000 10:26, October 5, 2014 (UTC) Hurricane Simon (2nd time) Damn, Simon is collapsing even faster than it intensified. It's barely a C2 now, with 85-kt winds and a pressure of 972 mbar. That pressure is up 19 mbar in the past 6 hours; explosive intensification in reverse. Oh well, it was nice while it lasted! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:48, October 5, 2014 (UTC) : It shouldn't hit Baja at the rate it's going, it's turning northward over unfavorable conditions and slowing down significantly. Ryan1000 16:06, October 5, 2014 (UTC) ::Simon says it's giving up. If anything, its rate of weakening has accelerated. Now it's barely a hurricane, 65 kts/977 mbar, and the NHC says even that could be generous. Man, it's hard to believe Simon was a strengthening major hurricane not even 24 hours ago. I haven't seen such a powerful hurricane implode so spectacularly since Dora. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:37, October 5, 2014 (UTC) :::I thought it was pretty insane and surprising that Simon jumped to C4 strength since my last post and is now crashing down like a rock! :O Simon says he's done and wants to fade away. Baja might get plenty of rain from Simon's remnants and it wouldn't be out of the question that us in SoCal would also get a few sprinkles from the remnants. I kinda doubt it would reach SoCal though but we might still get some moisture.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 23:53, October 5, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Simon (2nd time) Simon is no longer a hurricane, but it's not weakening as quickly as it was before, either. 60 kts/983 mbar now. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:53, October 6, 2014 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Mine: *Iselle - 60% - If they tried to retire Daniel, they would try to do this too. *Odile - 70% - Significant damage in Baja California, mostly due to rushed preparations. *Everything else - 0% - Meh. --Isaac829 02:33, September 16, 2014 (UTC) YE's: #Amanda: 1% since it was epic. #Boris: 3% killed a few ppl #Cristina 1% As epic as Amanda. #Douglas 0% Was okay. #Elida 0% Fail #Fausto 0% an epic epic epic fail. #Wali 0% See Elida #Geneive 1% just an epic long track, but it aint going anywhere #Hernan 0% fish system #Iselle 35% Very tricky. Hawaii is super lenient, but they'll never had a middle of the ground storm like this. They'll request probs though. #Julio 1% For passing north of Hawaii #Karina 0% fish system, but one hec of a storm to track #Lowell 0% Cute structure #Marie 10% $14 mil in damage 3 deaths, but not likely. Very fun to track though. #Norbert 15% Severe ($100 m) damage in both Baja and Arizona, but I can't see this going #Odile 60% This totally deserves to go. Cat 3 into Baja, c'mon. Nearly 1 billion in damage and 15-16 deaths. But MX has a poor track record. #Polo 2% 1 dead and 7.5 mil in damage aint gonna cut it Since when is Amanda a fish storm? It killed 3 people. Cristina affected land as well, FTR. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 21:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :There is no need for this section! We're only one fish storm in, for crying out loud! Please wait until later. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:22, May 25, 2014 (UTC) Steve's retirement predictions: *Amanda: 1% - Didn't significantly affect land but was an epic and awesome storm that surprised us by strengthening to strongest May storm in EPac on record! It caused the deaths of 3-4 people which is why it is 1%. *Boris: 2% - Caused destruction in Central America but most likely it isn't getting retired because it only caused 5 deaths. *Cristina: 0% - It was also an epic and awesome storm, similar to Amanda, but it isn't getting the boot due to the storm not affecting land. *Douglas: 0% - It really tried even though it only peaked as weak TS, but since it didn't affect land it won't be retired. *Elida: 1% - It actually did cause some slight impacts, but it's certainly not going and will be back in 2020. *Fausto: -∞% - 'nuff said *Wali: -∞% - See Fausto *Genevieve - 0.1% - Very freakin awesome, especially because it was a weak TS for a couple weeks before exploding into a '''Category 5'!!! Wow! It didn't affect land though but it gets a tiny extra point for awesomeness. *Hernan: 0% - It broke our weak TS streak, but since it didn't cause any impacts, a retirement is not going to happen. *'Iselle: 60% - Hawaii's third costliest storm and strongest Big Island landfall ever. It was also a fun-to-track Category 4. Due to these Hawaiian impacts and their retirement standards, it has a good shot at going.' *Julio: 0% - Fun to track and pulled a surprising stunt on us near the end by re-strengthening to a hurricane in high latitudes, but since it didn't affect land Julio will come back in 2020. *Karina: 0% - Just a typical minimal hurricane without affecting land. Pulled a Douglas/Julio out of the hat and lasted longer than expected. *Lowell: 0% - Didn't affect land *Marie: 0% - Awesome Cat. 5 but not going due to lack of land effects. *Norbert: 15% - Flooding in Arizona and effects in Baja, but I'm still a bit positive that it won't be retired. This is no laughing matter though. *Odile: 70% - Strongest Baja landfall ever, and very destructive for the region. It has a fairly decent shot at being retired. *Polo: 1% - A death and some slight damage, but I really don't think it would be retired. *Rachel: 0% - She didn't cause affects on land so it's safe to say she won't be retired and will be back for 2020. *Simon: ? - Still active Steve820 21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) (last updated 03:35, October 3, 2014 (UTC)) ::(Edit conflict) Dylan, Amanda was definitely not a fish storm because of its extremely rare intensity. AndrewTalk To Me 21:31, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::Whether or not a storm is a fish has zilch to do with its intensity. Fish storms are not necessarily weak storms; they are storms that do not even do so much as breathe on any landmasses during their existence. Amanda falls into that category. Granted, it was still a very impressive hurricane, but a fish storm nonetheless. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:39, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::Leeboy's epic prediction for hurricane retirement (EPAC) ::*Amanda: 1%- While it was an impressive storm, it isn't going to be retired because it hasn't affected land. (Updated to 1% due to the deaths in Mexico) ::*Boris: 3%- Didn't actually track this storm but I'll give it a 3 because it caused six fatalities. ::*Cristina:-'' 1% damage wasn't too bad ::*Douglas- 0% no ::*Elida-0% NO ::*Fausto-0% '''NO' ::*Wali-0% I didn't even know this storm existed. ::*Genevieve- 0% Just like Amanda. Impressive storm that didn't affect land. ::*Hernan-0% it became a hurricane. That's about it ::*'Iselle-55%- Due to its effects on Hawaii ($53 million now up to $66 million and fortunately only 1 death) it has a good chance at retirement. Although the WMO is strange at retiring EPAC names. However, it's safe to say Hawaii will probably request retirement.' ::*Julio-0% an interesting storm to track that almost hit Hawaii. ::*Karina-0% The only reason I can think of that could get this name retired is sounding too much like "Katrina" but no. ::*Lowell-0% See Hernan ::*Marie-0% an amazing cat. 5. Like her sisters Amanda and Genevieve it didn't affect land though ::*''Norbert 30%'' caused 5 deaths and flooding, and it could be upgraded if there is more confirmed damage and deaths '' still only 5 confirmed deaths but damage is $100 million, there have been past storms that have caused bigger losses have NOT been retired (Jimena in 2009 comes to mind) so this may or may not be retired.'' ::*'Odile- 75% as Ryan said in his retirement post before he updated it, Odile "kicked the shit out of baja" so far Odile has caused (as of September 20, 2014) the deaths of 5 people and 4 people to go missing. Damage is actually unknown but the article from wikipedia says damage ''may exceed $906.4 million!!! ''and that doesn't include the damge in Arizona from the remnants. Despite all the snubbing of other storms in the EPAC, this will be retired,and if it isn't then the WMO has some kind of mental condition. And who can forget this picture:' icyclone Odile damage ::*Polo-1% caused one death in Mexico ::*Rachel- currently active leeboy100My Talk! 14:36, September 28, 2014 (UTC) :::Just because something was epic it doesn't mean she needs to get points to be honest right now her chance is 0% it might go up if her remnants or whatever is left gives rain to Mexico and the USA,but I believe they are going to be more beneficial that harmful.Allanjeffs 22:42, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::Isaac, can we seriously wait on starting this section from now on? We shouldn't begin the retirements section until we either 1) have a decent number of storms, or 2) have something worth retiring. Beginning this right after the "A" storm (which didn't even affect land) is premature and we won't get a meaningful discussion out of it, it's pretty obvious to everyone that Amanda won't get retired. Wait a little more from now on. Ryan1000 04:55, May 26, 2014 (UTC) :::::So Amanda may get 1% after all she killed three to four people in Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:31, June 3, 2014 (UTC) Time for my thoughts: East Pacific: *Amanda - 1% - That 1% is just because of the few deaths in Mexico, not for being epic. *Boris - 3% - More impact than Amanda, but still not enough for retirement. *Cristina - 0% - No damage, no deaths, no retirement. Nuff said. *Douglas - 0% - ^^ *Elida - 1% - Actually it did cause some minor damage here and there, so it's not a 0%. *Fausto - Faulure% - Need I say more? *Genevieve - 0% - My god, what a storm! Who could've guessed that Genevieve would go from being a weakling TS that died twice in the CPac to becoming a category 5 super typhoon and the most powerful storm worldwide in 2014. It showed all of us what happens when you keep trying and don't give up. :) All while it was far out to sea, with no damage or casualties reported. *Hernan - 0% - Well hey, at least we finally got another hurricane... *'Iselle' '- 50% - Eh, sue me. I really don't know what to think of Iselle's chances for retirement. While Iselle killed a person and caused 66 million in damage (making it Hawaii's 3rd costliest storm after Iwa and Iniki), those numbers don't appear to be too high on paper and the post-storm media hype with this one didn't last as long as it did with past U.S. landfalling storms. I'd say it's a toss-up -- It could very well be retired for its unique nature and so-called "unprecedented" impacts on the Big Island, but I also wouldn't be too surprised if it's not retired since the damage and death toll weren't too extreme. We'll see what the WMO says.' *Julio - 0% - Total fishspinner, but I'm surprised it went up to a hurricane again in the far north Central Pacific. *Karina - 0% - Another hurricane, but well away from any land. *Lowell - 0% - The remnants did bring some rain to southern California, but no damages or deaths were reported. In fact, it was probably beneficial to them since they've been in a severe drought for most of this year. *Marie - 6% - 6th strongest EPac storm on record, and strongest August storm ever (second if you count Ioke '06), but unfortunately Marie killed 3 people and caused 14 million in damage due to her large offshore swells. Not something to write off as a total fishspinner, but it's not enough for retirement either. *''Norbert'' ''- 23% - Caused extreme flooding over parts of Arizona (100 million, to be precise) and other areas of the southwestern U.S. Five deaths on top of that give Norbert an outside shot, but as past storms like Paul '82 and Octave '83 showed, the impacts caused by the precursor/remnants of a storm don't usually count for retirement, unfortunately. Still upping the percent a bit since the numbers do merit mentioning.'' *'Odile' '- 73% - Insured losses from Odile are currently estimated to exceed 906.4 million USD, if we use the 2-to-1 ratio of insured losses to total losses, this thing could've caused around 1.8 billion in damage. Add 15 deaths on top of that, and you have a very likely retirement canidate. While Mexico is usually quite selective when it comes to retiring names, the damage caused by Odile is unprecedented for Cabo San Lucas, and for all intents and purposes, it deserves to be retired. ' *Polo - 1% - The outer rainbands did cause flooding in southern Mexico which led to 7.5 million dollars in damage and 1 death, so, like Elida, it isn't a complete fail, but it's still likely not going to be retired. *Rachel - 0% - Yet another hurricane, but was well away from land. *Simon - ?? - Could affect Baja in 4 days or so. Central Pacific: *Wali - 0% - If you blinked, you missed it. And there you have it.'' Ryan1000'' 10:21, June 30, 2014 (UTC) :Cristina wasn't a *total* fishspinner. IT passed near Socorro Island (has roughly 200 ppl on it) and brought waves to MX. Odv staying though :P 20:42, June 30, 2014 (UTC) Alright, here are mine as of June 30: *Amanda — <1% Nope. *Boris — ≤1% Nope. *Cristina — <1% Nope. *Douglas — <1% Nope. *Elida — ≤1% Probably nope. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:39, June 30, 2014 (UTC) : Passing by a (relatively) unpopulated island doesn't count in my book. And waves to Mexico, eh, at least it didn't kill anyone like Amanda did. Still a 0% :P Ryan1000 22:31, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::Since we have reached the "D" name, I will post my predictions for the EPAC. #Amanda - 1% - It caused three fatalities and damaged several roads and structures across Western Mexico, but these impacts do not even hold a candle to last year's Manuel. #Boris - 2% - Widespread impact and six fatalities have been reported across southern Mexico and Guatemala. I doubt retirement however, given Agatha's snub. #Cristina - <1% - Some waves along the Mexican coastline, but nothing too severe. #Douglas - 0% - For a storm of its intensity and environment, this was a very strong fighter against the world. However, since no damages or deaths were reported from Douglas, it will most likely stay. #Elida - 0.5% - Elida did the best she could against the heavy wind shear and Douglas. Nevertheless, she only caused little damage to resorts along Mexico's coast. #Fausto - 0% - Absolutely no impacts were reported from Fausto, and I do not even think this system deserved a name anyway. #Wali - 0% - Wali was a miserable fail, just like a CPAC Fausto. #Genevieve - 0% - I am very impressed by the show Genevieve gave us. I remember when we were first calling the storm a pathetic fail (not me, at least!) and just saying it sucked when she poofed away. Then Genny tried hard to prove us wrong and she only got so far again. So she passed away again, but her spirit still stayed with her, and she refused to give up hope. Finally, she did what every EPAC system dreams of doing - live in all three basins and become a modest Category 5 hurricane. It was worth the struggle. Genny accomplished her dream, and even better, harmed no one. While we know she isn't going, she was a very impressive system for her age and day. #Hernan - 0% - Hernan became a respectable weak hurricane, albeit a weak one. However, only the Revillagigedo Islands were affected, and no impact has been reported yet. So it's safe to assume Cortes has to wait another six years. #'Iselle - 60% - Well, Miss Iselle is going to be a tricky one. She started off real excited and attained C4 intensity in a region that normally could only handle a C2. Then she did the annular trick and went straight to Hawaii's doorstep as a moderate TS. Her landfall on the Big Island is the strongest one to ever occur. And that obviously didn't go without impact. Damaging surf and strong winds around Hilo downed a number of trees and unroofed some houses. Over 20,000 are without power due to all the power lines Iselle downed. Of strong note is what happened in Puna; the power failure in a geothermal plant has released toxic hydrogen sulfide gases into the air, which could suffocate dozens. Currently, one fatality has been reported from the hurricane, and damage reports are at $53 million (2014 USD). Call me overcasting, but Hawaii requested Flossie '07 and Daniel '06 for retirement, both of which caused effectively nothing. Iselle, however, has left a huge mark for Hawaii, and it's likely going based on their retirement standards.' #Julio - 0% - Julio was a very impressive major hurricane and shocked me with his little re-intensification stunt. However, no land impacts, so no retirement for him. #Karina - 0% - Karina fought long and strong for two weeks against everything that could have killed her. But no impacts, so she's not moving a muscle. #Lowell - 0% - Became a hurricane unexpectedly, but caused nothing. #Marie - 5% - Actually, Marie was a little more impacting than some of you think. The Mexican state of Oaxaca declared a disaster due to all the flooding and landslides, and two people were swept out to sea. Santa Catalina Island reported huge boulders tossed onshore and docked boats were ripped off their stands, which caused $10+ million (2014 USD) in losses. There was also a fatality in Malibu from someone hit by a rock. Marie was surely impressive as a Category 5, but it didn't leave nothing behind. #''Norbert - 30% - Well, the Ridgeback sure caused something. A dam failure occurred northwest of Puerto San Carlos, and three people were swept away from floodwaters across northern Mexico. In California, damage was also notable, with many flooded freeways and stranded vehicles. But the worst happened in Arizona. Sky Harbor Airport in Pheonix recorded in seven hours an entire summer's worth of rainfall. Also, southern areas of the city suffered many closed streets and thousands of customers were powerless in Pheonix and Mesa. As a matter of fact, water levels were so high in Tucson that pumping stations couldn't handle the stress. Flooding was described as the worst in Arizona since 1970, and similarly, rainfall in Nevada caused the worst problems for Moapa Valley in over a century. Five fatalities and all that impact makes Norbert a great candidate for retirement, but if Kathleen in 1976 or Nora in 1997 stayed, well, who knows.'' #Odile - TBA - Still Active AndrewTalk To Me 01:36, July 1, 2014 (UTC) We have enough storms for me: ;Eastern Pacific *Amanda: 2% - 3 deaths won't cut it, but damn, this was certainly an excellent early-season surprise. *Boris: 8% - Caused more impact than Amanda, but probably not enough for retirement. *Cristina: 0% - It may have been almost as strong as Amanda and set several records for its early-season intensity, but a fish is a fish is a fish, regardless of how impressive or powerful it is. *Douglas: 0% - http://img3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130917044500/glee/images/b/bc/You_tried_.png *Elida: 0% 1% - http://ih1.redbubble.net/image.13056045.3033/fc,550x550,white.jpg :*Actually, there was some impact after all, but it was only minor. *Fausto: Pun% - *faustpalm* *Genevieve: 0% - Epic win for the intensity it reached after struggling for nearly two weeks, but it steered clear of land areas. *Hernan: Hurricane% - Finally. *'Iselle:' 51% - With Daniel '06 and Flossie '07, Hawaii proved itself willing to request the retirement of anything that dares to breathe on them. Since Iselle actually hit them - and made its mark, too - then if Hawaii submits Iselle for consideration, the WMO may be more likely to oblige this time around. *Julio: 0% - Kudos for becoming a major hurricane and surviving relatively far north for a Pacific hurricane, but like I said about Cristina, a fish is a fish is a fish. *Karina: 0% - Fishspinner, but it was also the EPAC's longest-lasting storm in a while. Two weeks is difficult to pull off in this part of the world, and for that, Karina deserves kudos. *Lowell: 0% - Became a hurricane when it was thought that its large size would preclude it from doing so, but other than that, not much to see here. I haven't heard of any adverse affects from Lowell's supposed moisture enhancement in the southeastern United States. *Marie: 4% - It's a pity that this storm couldn't go entirely without impact, but it was still amazing to watch. *Norbert: 20% - Caused terrible flooding in the southwestern United States, but historically speaking (Kathleen '76, Octave '83, etc.), that has not been enough for retirement. We'll see, though. *'Odile:' 55% 70% - This is a preliminary estimate that could go up or down depending on whether or not the damage at the Holiday Inn where the iCyclone team is staying is commonplace, but one thing's for sure: unless we get something even worse later on, this is most likely the storm of this year's EPAC season. And Odile is still a strong hurricane trekking up Baja as I type this. Who knows how bad the damage and death toll could be when it's all said and done. :*The damage is commonplace. That 70% assumes a low death toll from this thing. If Odile killed as many people as I'm afraid it did, it's an 85%. *Polo: 2% - Minor. *Rachel: 0% - Fishspinner, but hey, it became the first Hurricane Rachel ever! ;Central Pacific *Wali: 0% - I mean at least it was a CPAC storm, which doesn't happen all that often. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:58, July 1, 2014 (UTC) Here's mine: *Amanda: 1% - Gave us an early season surprise, but its 3 deaths won't cut it. *Boris: 5% - Impacts weren't significant enough. *Cristina: 1% - It became a monster, but it was a fish. *Douglas: 0% - He tried, but he failed. *Elida: 0% - She didn't even try. - HurricaneHunter99 (talk) 17:27, July 2, 2014 (UTC) :??? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:54, July 2, 2014 (UTC) ::Dylan, is that a doppelganger account of yours? AndrewTalk To Me 21:30, July 2, 2014 (UTC) :::Nah, just someone who wishes they could be like me ;) --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:03, July 2, 2014 (UTC) ::::My predictions for this season. :::*Amanda: 1% - It became a C4, but it didn't cause impacts neccessary for retirement. :::*Boris: 1% - Given that this system gave minimal effects and Mexico is picky with retirements, Boris is staying. :::*Cristina: 1% - Pulled off a good show and rivaled Amanda in intensity, she's not going anywhere. :::*Douglas: 0% - He tried, but his large size prevented him from pulling off a good show. :::*Elida: 0% - Elida didn't even try, she truly failed. :::*Fausto: 0% - Completely ruined its image as a strong storm. :::*Wali: 0% - Added to the unneccessary tropical storm spam. :::*Genevieve: 0% - I can't see it happening. :::*Hernan: 0% - Finally ended the tropical storm spam, otherwise Hernan is staying. Simlover123 23:13, July 26, 2014 (UTC) ::::Amanda: 1% Stunning and early surprise storm but she is not going 3 deaths are not going to make Mexico ask for her. ::::Boris: 3% Minimal damage at most, Mexico have seen much worse storms who haven't been retired not excuse for this one. ::::Cristina:0% Amazing storm but she is not going as she didn't affect land. ::::Douglas:0% I expect a fail of him and I recieve a fail, but I give him credit for living longer than forecast. ::::Elida: 0% Expect much more from her and I get an epic fail. ::::Fausto:0% Epic Failure. That says it all ::::Genevieve: Active ::::Hernan: 0% Just because he was a hurricane doesn't mean he is a candidate for retirement. He did nothing at all. ::::Iselle: 40% not bad but the 2nd most damaging stom until now. ::::Julio: 0% not much can we say ::::Karina:0% Logetivity does not mean retirement ::::Lowell:0 nop you are staying ::::Marie:1% 3 deaths is nothing to joke but she is staying ::::Norbert 5% Flooding was an issue but Baja just saw worse with Odile and USA have seen worse too. ::::Odile: 75% Baja California suffer from this a lot I just saw pics and videos the airport was really damaged and there appears extensive damage. Knowing Mexico it might ask for retirement but it could still not ask they did snoob Karl but seeing how paicific landfalls are rarer it might be the catalyst for Mexico to ask for her. ::::Wali: 0% Another failureeeeee. ::::Allanjeffs 04:26, July 8, 2014 (UTC) :::*Amanda = 10% Too cool for retirement. :::*Boris = 1% Even Boris Johnson thought this storm was nothing special. :::*Cristina = 5% She is beautiful, no matter what you say, but she aint movin. :::*Douglas = -3% Next! :::*Elida = -10% Yawn. :::*Fausto = -821973892638742748% -grabs vomit bucket- :::*Genevieve = 10% Super ADHD storm for the win! :::*Hernan = Yawn% “i liek turtlez 14:53, August 24, 2014 (UTC) ::::Here's my prediction ::::HERE WE GO! Replacement Names Although it's not a guarantee, there is a possibility Iselle could be retired due to its impacts on Hawaii. That being said, what are your thoughts on possible replacement names for Iselle? My suggestions are: *Ivy *Isha *Isla *Indira *Ines *Ivana *Ilene *Ivette *Ilsa *Isabela *Inga *Ilse *Ivonne *Ivanna Out of these suggestions (feel free to post more), I would pick Inga. Ryan1000 01:24, August 17, 2014 (UTC) :I'm not completely sure Iselle is doomed to go, but here are my top ten suggestions - *'Iggy' *Innocente *Iphigenia *Isabel *Ione *Isuelt *Irmelin *Inmaculada *Ilse *Imelia AndrewTalk To Me 12:26, August 19, 2014 (UTC) Like Iggy Azealea? Fancy name. Anyway, I thought of Imani. “i liek turtlez 16:24, August 19, 2014 (UTC) :I think Isabel and anything too similar is out of the question since the name was retired from the Atlantic lists only a decade ago. My top pick would be Ione - also retired in the Atlantic, but that was nearly 6 decades ago, and the name was subsequently used in the Pacific several times before male names were introduced. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:56, August 19, 2014 (UTC) :Iggy is good. 16:31, August 22, 2014 (UTC) I was thinkin'that Iggy would kill mario for 2019. Here's my suggestions: *'Ivy' *'Ivana' *Ivette *'Iggy' *'Ione' *Imelia *Ilsa *Isla *'Inga' *Ivonne Ones that I like the most are in bold. It would also be cool to have a system named after Iggy Azalea. :D --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 16:48, August 22, 2014 (UTC) :Or Iggy Pop. I'd much rather have Iggy used in a male context for that reason :P --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:37, August 23, 2014 (UTC) :What about Odile? We could have, Odessa, Odilia (lol), or maybe... for the bronies out there... OCTAVIA. WE NEED OCTAVIA! ANYONE WITH ME? rarity is best pony 18:51, September 16, 2014 (UTC) :::Hmm...if the current damage reports from Odile do turn out to be within the range of several billion dollars, then yes, she's gone. My suggestions for Odile are as follows: *Osana *Orma *Orna *Omena *Oliana *Olivie *Opalina *Ohanna *Olina Olivie might be too close to Olivia, but otherwise, out of these suggestions, I would go with Olina. Ryan1000 20:39, September 16, 2014 (UTC) :My vote goes to Odessa, with Orchid as a runner-up. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:46, September 16, 2014 (UTC) Here are my suggestions: Iselle: *Ilaria *Imelda *Immacolata *Ines *Italia *Ilda *India *Iolanda *Irma *Isabella *Ivy Norbert: (may have a chance at retirement due to AZ flooding, but I wouldn't count on it) *Nazario *Nevio *Nico *Nicola *Nino *Natalio *Nathan *Najee *Naldo *Narisco *Ned *Neil *Nerio *Newton *Nick *Nicky *Nicodemo *Nigel *Nils *Noah *Norton Odile: *Orabella *Orlanda *Ornella *Orsola *Odalis *Octavia *Odelia *Ottavia Andros 1337 (talk) 22:10, September 16, 2014 (UTC) YES TO OCTAVIA! You're going to make this cellist and Vinyl they happiest fillies alive. GO OCTAVIA! rarity is best pony 22:34, September 16, 2014 (UTC) : Not sure if Norbert'll go, but in the event it does, I would pick Neil as his replacement, with my personal runner-ups being Nico or Nigel. I would've picked Newton but unfortunately he's already on the EPac naming lists, scheduled for use in 2016. Irma and Imelda are currently in use in the Atlantic, being the replacements of Irene and Ingrid, respectively, and I find India very unlikely due to the country, similar to Israel which was removed in 2001. I still stick with Inga as my primary choice for Iselle, with a close runner-up being Ivy, and my runner-ups for Olina would be Ornella or Ora. Ryan1000 22:44, September 16, 2014 (UTC) ::Picking out of Andros' list, I would prefer Octavia for Odile and Nathan or Neil for Norbert. I don't think Norbert will be retired though.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 23:28, September 16, 2014 (UTC) My top 3 choices for each name are as follows: ;Iselle #Ione #Ivette #Inga ;Norbert #Niko (the name of one of my closest friends) #Neil #Nigel ;Odile #Odessa #Opalina #Orchid Also, I'm not a big fan of Karina being on the list because of its similarity to Katrina (though I acknowledge that Karina was added to the list more than two years before Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast), so I'd like to see Kendra on the list instead :P --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:32, September 28, 2014 (UTC) Post-season changes The first TCR of the season was released on the 12th, so I figured it was time to start this section. Boris's strength was upped to 40 kts/998 mbar (from the operational peak of 35 kts/999 mbar). It also never made landfall - while it was operationally believed to have done so, post-analysis found that the low-level center actually remained offshore, coming within 20 nmi of the coast before dissipating. No deaths were reported from Boris while it was a tropical cyclone, but the precursor disturbance killed 5 in Guatemala. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:37, August 23, 2014 (UTC) : Looks Like Cristina and Elida are now out. Nothing's particularly special intensity-wise, but the NHC report did say there was some extensive beach erosion and damage to hotels along the southern Mexican coast from Elida, so it looks like she wasn't a complete fail. Updated to include her a 1%. Ryan1000 20:25, August 26, 2014 (UTC) ::I wasn't expecting that much impact from Elida. Guess she wasn't so pathetic after all. AndrewTalk To Me 07:35, August 29, 2014 (UTC) ::::Fausto is out, nothing special though. Ryan1000 17:57, September 5, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Amanda's has been released, it remains a strong cat 4, though the ACE has changed a bit. As for the Atlantic...as of now, none are released yet, but if we don't get significant activity soon, with only 5 storms thus far, I'll bend the December 1st rule again this year and open the TCR betting pool for the ATL by October 15. Ryan1000 20:41, September 23, 2014 (UTC) :::::::I was hoping post-analysis would reveal our first May C5, but oh well. There's always next season! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:51, September 24, 2014 (UTC)